The sun shines in unexpected places (transforming the solar sector)

Sunshine is not distributed equally across Africa, and nor is the solar sector. 

Status quo: Current African leadership in installed solar capacity is closely related to prosperity (and diminished by domestic oil production).

• Economic giants South Africa and Egypt are at the top (1,700 - 6,000 MW).

• Followed by development leaders Algeria and Morocco (450 - 850 MW).

• Green champions Kenya and Ethiopia come next (250 - 300 MW).

• The continent’s top oil producers, Angola and Nigeria, are missing.

Coming shakeup: The top leaders have seen strong growth. South African installations quadrupled in two years, not least due to failure in traditional generation. 

• Yet accelerating investment in renewables, including but not limited to solar, will shift the locations of growth dramatically.

• Large economies will remain large potential solar consumers, but an analysis by Green Rising forecasts shifts in regional growth rates. 

New normal: Solar’s unequal distribution in Africa is likely to undergo a fundamental transformation driven by competition from cheaper (and less intermittent) renewables. 

• Geothermal, hydro-electric and wind generation are more cost-effective than solar.

• The need to store day-time sunpower for night-time consumption makes solar costly.

Other factors: With growing investment, the relative attractiveness of solar is impacted by three other factors that have so far been overshadowed.

1. Europe has discovered Africa as a potential electricity exporter, favouring nations to the continent’s north. 

2. The weaker a country’s power grid, the more attractive solar becomes… since solar can be installed at a small scale – unlike other renewables. 

3. Photovoltaic strength, i.e. sunlight, varies regionally, and with it the cost-effectiveness of solar.

The result: Growth in solar installations will be strongest in places with poor grids, uninterrupted sunlight and ideally the potential to export power. 

• Everywhere else will be better off using other forms of renewables – if they are available.

Our analysis: We mapped these factors across the continent, including the country-by-country potential of competitor tech to solar (wind, hydro and geothermal).

• The data shows the future spread of solar is less influenced by economic prosperity. 

• At least at grid-level, though household installations will remain closely correlated.

New growth: Solar-specific announcements at COP (see below) already reflect this, likely accelerated by new funding sources, also launched at COP.

The winners: Saharan countries score highly thanks to uninterrupted sunlight and proximity to European export markets. 

• But current leaders Egypt and Morocco lag as they have fine grids already as well as access to cheaper alternative renewables. 

• Their more dysfunctional neighbours could see faster growth by contrast. 

Falling behind: East Africa is exploiting ever more of its plentiful wind and geothermal potential, and is improving its grids. That makes solar ever less attractive (see map above). 

Regional shifts: South Africa is solar king now. But southern promise is strongest in Namibia. 

• It has an extraordinary photovoltaic score while investing heavily in green hydrogen, with the potential to export power even if it is far from Europe.

Deal examples: The shifting solar landscape shows up in the latest announcements. 

• On November 17, Nigeria sealed a $2.2 billion solar agreement with Sun Africa, bringing in 961 MWp of solar power and 455 MWh of battery storage.

• On the same day, CAR unveiled its second solar power plant, Danzi, a 25 MWp capacity plant with 47,000 solar panels installed by the Chinese company Shanxi Construction Investment Group, financed by a World Bank loan.

• Danish developer GreenGo Energy seeks approval for a 60 GW wind-solar hybrid in Mauritania, featuring 35 GW capacity for green hydrogen production.

Sunny potential: The Sahara absorbs sunlight equivalent to 100 times of all human power consumption.

• A single Algerian solar panel generates three times more electricity than a German one.

Other drivers: The growth of solar in Africa and elsewhere is due to technical breakthroughs.

• Panel costs have come down 89% in the past decade. 

• Efficiency has increased to capture 25% of the sun’s energy. But new panels yet to reach the market drive that up to 47%.