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A China wave bigger and greener than the last

New Chinese (and US) investments focusing on African mobility dwarf what came before

Welcome to Green Rising – Most Africans carry Chinese technology in their pockets in the form of phones. Yet none of the devices are manufactured on the continent. 

The same goes for sectors such as solar power and wind turbines: China sees the continent purely as an export market. 

When it comes to cars and motorbikes, however, that is likely to play out differently. 

After years of focusing on electronics, renewables, mining and construction, China’s interest in Africa is now turning to transport, and especially electric mobility. 

As we report below, China looks set to dominate the African vehicle market in a few short years. 

And not only is China selling in Africa but it’s building factories to manufacture vehicles here – in a substantial change for the green economy. 

Mobility investments herald what could become “China in Africa 2.0”. A relationship that has long been transactional might become a little more substantive. 

(We should acknowledge: Investments in Africa more generally are down – and the model for our sinified image above is originally Japanese).

Today’s reading time: 4 mins

EVENTS UPDATE | Thursday, December 05

📆 Morocco hosts a green transport conference (Dec 10)

📆 Tanzania hosts East Africa Energy Cooperation Summit (Jan 29)

📆 Kenya hosts PowerTech Africa (Jan 27)

ALSO PLEASE SEE OUR JOB BOARD BELOW

1. 🚁 Heli view: When elephants stampede, the grass grows faster

Our map above shows African countries in red that drive on the same side as China. They are the target of a new campaign to export used electric vehicles to Africa. 

  • One million used EVs are expected to arrive within two to three years. 

  • The continent currently has perhaps a few ten-thousand.  

Red tide: China inaugurated its first used EV inspection point for export in Shanghai last month. 

  • Chinese production overcapacity is expected to make usually expensive EVs affordable in developing countries.

High revs: About 10 million EVs will be made in China this year. They account for more than half the new car registrations in the country.

  • The high adoption rate has flooded the domestic Chinese used car market. 

  • Now it is set to reshape the African one as well.

Rivals on wheels: China is not alone in targeting African mobility. American wheels are competing for pole position. Mobility is the latest arena of superpower rivalry.

  • US president Joe Biden was in Angola this week to boost American transport deals.

  • Chinese president Xi Jinping was in Morocco last week to do the same. 

The prize example: America and China are behind duelling major rail lines leading from Zambia’s copper belt to opposite coasts on the continent. 

  • Mr Biden showcased the US-backed Lobito Corridor railway that connects Zambia and DR Congo to Angola and the Atlantic coast at a cost of $4 billion. 

  • It enables the shipping to America of minerals mined in Africa’s interior and critical for technologies such as electric vehicles.

Speed up: The Angolan railway will cut transit times from 45 days by truck to less than 36 hours.

  • Proponents project that 80% of minerals extracted from Zambia and DR Congo will be go on this route by 2030.

  • Plans are also in place for a highway connecting Angolan Atlantic ports to Mozambique on the Indian Ocean, further integrating regional trade.

Belated realisation: Transport is not just a key market in Africa but also pivotal to control of other sectors. 

  • The International Energy Agency forecasts a twenty-fold increase by 2040 in demand for nickel and cobalt, much of it mined in southern Africa.

Railway battle: China is as keen on the minerals as America and has been financing the refurbishment of a rival rail line from Zambia to Tanzania’s Indian Ocean coast.  

  • The railway was originally constructed in the 1970s with Chinese assistance but deteriorated over the years and currently operates below capacity. 

  • China will spend $1 billion to divert mineral exports away from Western markets.

  • The refurbished line will be under the control of a Chinese state-owned company.

Leadership focus: It is telling where each superpower leader travelled in Africa. While Mr Biden went to Angola for a freight line, Mr Xi visited Morocco, Africa’s largest car maker. 

  • Rivalry is not limited to rails but equally evident on African roads. 

EV et al: Most cars on the continent currently come from Europe, Japan, South-East Asia and the Middle East.

  • But that’s about to change, and not only due to the influx of used Chinese EVs.  

America first: Tesla, led by South African Elon Musk, this year became the biggest employer in the electric mobility space in Africa. 

  • The firm has 929 senior staff on the continent, up 177% in the past 12 months. 

  • Tesla came to Africa in 2021, when it installed the first Supercharger in Morocco.

Behind but: China’s BYD, the world’s largest EV maker, has a mere 88 senior staff based in Africa but is catching up fast. It opened showrooms in 12 African countries this year. 

  • Almost a third of BYD employees in Africa are salespeople. 

  • The comparable figure for Tesla is less than 20%.

Secret sauce: China is building local partnerships to expand sales; America not so much.

  • BYD allied itself with Pilatus in Zambia, Ampersand in Rwanda and BasiGo in Kenya. 

  • BYD also tailors models to the African market, redesigning for local conditions.

  • Other Chinese EV makers are following suit, not least since new US and EU tariffs make Africa comparatively more attractive all of a sudden. 

Beyond partnerships: China is also transferring technology and industrial production to the continent (something it never did with other export successes). 

  • State-owned automaker BAIC Group is building an assembly plant in Egypt, aiming to produce 20,000 electric vehicles annually from 2025

  • Chinese auto giants XPeng, Geely, Neta, Chery, JAC Motors, Dongfeng and SAIC have all announced plans to assemble or manufacture vehicles in Africa. 

  • Mr Xi's visit last week came soon after Gotion High-Tech announced that it’ll build Africa’s first gigafactory in Morocco at a cost of $1.3 billion.

China is winning: America is falling behind when it comes to transport investments.

  • This assumes the trend of China not just selling but also making stuff in Africa holds.

  • The breadth of China’s engagement and its focus on end-consumers is unmatched.

  • This should entail substantial benefits for Africa. May the elephants stampede.

2. Number of the week 

…is the percentage of diapers that are not properly disposed of in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria, with over 514 million out of the 960 million used annually being dumped, burned or buried.

3. Network corner

👉 Africa-based clean energy provider CrossBoundary Energy raised $140 million to expand its portfolio

👉 Ghana’s retail store Melcom was awarded EDGE Green Building Certification by the International Finance Corporation

4. What we’re reading

  • Climate-induced crises: A new report from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) reveals that 6.3 million Africans were displaced by climate-related events in 2023, primarily due to floods and droughts. Another 32.5 million Africans were displaced due to conflict-related events, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia and Sudan being the hardest-hit countries. (IDMC)

  • Killing Botswanan elephants: A study led by Davide Lomeo of King’s College London shows that the 2020 mass die-off of nearly 400 African elephants in Botswana’s Okavango Delta was caused by toxic algal blooms in stagnant waterholes, triggered by climate change. The research, using satellite data and spatial analysis, identified 20 contaminated waterholes with the highest algal biomass, where elephants consumed toxic water and succumbed within 88 hours, walking an average of 16.5 km before death. (DownToEarth)

  • Tax threatens carbon market: South Africa's carbon taxes are set to rise significantly. Deputy minister for electricity Samantha Graham-Maré mulls a 143% increase in carbon tax rates and a potential 340% rise in tax payments for some industries due to the phasing out of allowances. Ms Graham-Maré warned that electricity costs could increase by up to 60% and that businesses exporting to the EU are at risk due to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. (BusinessTech)

5. Top green jobs from…

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Thanks to the Green Rising team for putting this together.

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