What Africa can expect at COP28

The UN opened last year’s COP in Cairo by piously declaring that “Africa’s COP should not neglect Africa’s concerns”. Action? Not so much.

The news: At this year’s iteration of the global climate shindig, opening in Dubai on November 30, attention to African concerns seems diminished, if anything. 

• Customary pre-arrival debates are focused on oil companies and superpowers.

• That heat stress last year reduced Africa’s GDP by 4% has remained unlamented.

Big picture: What has changed dramatically though is attention devoted to climate matters on the continent itself. 

• The inaugural Africa Climate Summit in Nairobi in September, attended by 20 heads of state, created a vocal African lobby. 

• The resulting green agenda is ambitious, concrete and widely endorsed. 

• COP is the first major test of the agenda’s chances of success.

The goals: Of the main subjects discussed in Dubai, climate finance stands out. And Africa has a keen interest.

• Last year at COP, nations agreed to create a “Loss and Damage Fund” to compensate those suffering under extreme weather and the like, many in Africa. 

• Questions around eligibility and allocation followed. But agreement is now near, though giving leadership to the World Bank is unpopular in the Global South. 

Promises made: Another leftover climate finance issue is a $100 billion pledge from rich countries – made in 2009 at yet another COP – to fund adaptation to climate change and mitigation of rising temperatures in developing nations. 

• They’re still waiting; a plurality is in Africa. But hopes have risen that this year might see progress. 

• Africa is pushing especially for extra emphasis on funding for adaptation. A doubling by 2025 was already pledged two years ago.

Fossil futility: Africa will be affected by COP decisions even when they are not aimed at the continent. Long-term plans to phase out (or phase down?) fossil fuels is one of them. 

• This is expensive, and Africa gets only 2% of global investment in renewable energy. Levers are sought to increase that. Achieving universal access to electricity is tricky otherwise.

• Africa’s climate negotiators want developed countries to stop oil & gas exploration well before 2030. 

• At the same time, they suggest giving “developing countries the opportunity to close the global supply gap in the short term”. 

Long list: There are more issues that may be cheered or dreaded in Africa. 

• One is the further implementation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement (2015) to help carbon credits generate financing for developing countries. 

• It follows actions in the past two years to pave the way for international carbon markets.

United front: How Africa acts in the bright Dubai spotlight will impact outcomes.

• Nigeria, South Africa and Angola, three of the four largest African economies, were muted in their engagement at the Africa Climate Summit in September. 

• Physical presence in Dubai by statesmen from all major African powers and a unity of voice among them are key.