1. The sun shines in unexpected places (transforming the solar sector)

Sunshine is not distributed equally across Africa, and nor is the solar sector. 

Status quo: Current African leadership in installed solar capacity is closely related to prosperity (and diminished by domestic oil production).

• Economic giants South Africa and Egypt are at the top (1,700 - 6,000 MW).

• Followed by development leaders Algeria and Morocco (450 - 850 MW).

• Green champions Kenya and Ethiopia come next (250 - 300 MW).

• The continent’s top oil producers, Angola and Nigeria, are missing.

Coming shakeup: The top leaders have seen strong growth. South African installations quadrupled in two years, not least due to failure in traditional generation. 

• Yet accelerating investment in renewables, including but not limited to solar, will shift the locations of growth dramatically.

• Large economies will remain large potential solar consumers, but an analysis by Green Rising forecasts shifts in regional growth rates. 

New normal: Solar’s unequal distribution in Africa is likely to undergo a fundamental transformation driven by competition from cheaper (and less intermittent) renewables. 

• Geothermal, hydro-electric and wind generation are more cost-effective than solar.

• The need to store day-time sunpower for night-time consumption makes solar costly.

Other factors: With growing investment, the relative attractiveness of solar is impacted by three other factors that have so far been overshadowed.

1. Europe has discovered Africa as a potential electricity exporter, favouring nations to the continent’s north. 

2. The weaker a country’s power grid, the more attractive solar becomes… since solar can be installed at a small scale – unlike other renewables. 

3. Photovoltaic strength, i.e. sunlight, varies regionally, and with it the cost-effectiveness of solar.

The result: Growth in solar installations will be strongest in places with poor grids, uninterrupted sunlight and ideally the potential to export power. 

• Everywhere else will be better off using other forms of renewables – if they are available.

Our analysis: We mapped these factors across the continent, including the country-by-country potential of competitor tech to solar (wind, hydro and geothermal).

• The data shows the future spread of solar is less influenced by economic prosperity. 

• At least at grid-level, though household installations will remain closely correlated.

New growth: Solar-specific announcements at COP (see below) already reflect this, likely accelerated by new funding sources, also launched at COP.

The winners: Saharan countries score highly thanks to uninterrupted sunlight and proximity to European export markets. 

• But current leaders Egypt and Morocco lag as they have fine grids already as well as access to cheaper alternative renewables. 

• Their more dysfunctional neighbours could see faster growth by contrast. 

Falling behind: East Africa is exploiting ever more of its plentiful wind and geothermal potential, and is improving its grids. That makes solar ever less attractive (see map above). 

Regional shifts: South Africa is solar king now. But southern promise is strongest in Namibia. 

• It has an extraordinary photovoltaic score while investing heavily in green hydrogen, with the potential to export power even if it is far from Europe.

Deal examples: The shifting solar landscape shows up in the latest announcements. 

• On November 17, Nigeria sealed a $2.2 billion solar agreement with Sun Africa, bringing in 961 MWp of solar power and 455 MWh of battery storage.

• On the same day, CAR unveiled its second solar power plant, Danzi, a 25 MWp capacity plant with 47,000 solar panels installed by the Chinese company Shanxi Construction Investment Group, financed by a World Bank loan.

• Danish developer GreenGo Energy seeks approval for a 60 GW wind-solar hybrid in Mauritania, featuring 35 GW capacity for green hydrogen production.

Sunny potential: The Sahara absorbs sunlight equivalent to 100 times of all human power consumption.

• A single Algerian solar panel generates three times more electricity than a German one.

Other drivers: The growth of solar in Africa and elsewhere is due to technical breakthroughs.

• Panel costs have come down 89% in the past decade. 

• Efficiency has increased to capture 25% of the sun’s energy. But new panels yet to reach the market drive that up to 47%.

2. A summary of how Africa fared at COP so far

COP28 is halfway done, but the big decisions in Dubai have yet to be made.

• Organisers claim they mobilised more than $83 billion globally so far.

• But will fossil fuel be phased out? Dunno. (UAE is a Formula 1 host, pictured above)

To see: It’s unclear if this COP will be planet-changing or how it’ll affect Africa. 

• So far, we’ve mostly seen individual pledges & announcements; some are significant. 

Taking stock: Our focus this week is to list (in as concise a form as possible) new money pledged directly for or aimed at Africa.

Reality check: Some COP pledges are officially tied to UN institutions. Others are merely timed to coincide with the event and not necessarily bankable.

• “Often, these are exercises in what you could call 'fire and forget'," warned Marc Vanheukelen, a former senior EU official. 

Top Africa announcements

• Africa Climate Risk Insurance Facility for Adaptation (ACRIFA): $1 billion insurance facility created by AfDB to protect millions of farmers in Africa.

• Alliance for Green Infrastructure in Africa (AGIA): $175m pledged to scale up financing for green infrastructure projects across the continent.

• Africa-EU Green Energy Initiative: €20 billion announced for the Team Europe Initiative, to increase access to green energy in Africa. 

• Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) Consortium: Nine African countries joined the global battery energy storage consortium. 

• Safe Access to Fuel and Energy (SAFE) Initiative: $10 billion initiative launched to tackle food security amid the climate crisis in Africa.

• Re-Gain: $100 million financing initiative launched by the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and AGRA to improve food security in Africa.

• Africa Green Industrialisation Initiative: Launched by President Ruto, details to come.

• Africa Finance Corporation: $350 million long-term line of credit for infrastructure signed with the African Development Bank

3. Q&A: Climate leader with answers

Frannie Leautier is the CEO of SouthBridge Investments and a former Vice-President at the World Bank. She is the co-author of the newly launched book “Financing Nature.” SouthBridge announced investment in DRC and Ghana at COP28.

Q: What’s the climate-change book you would most recommend? A: Not a book on climate change, as such, but still an excellent book for thinking about the world we live in is “Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind” by Yuval Noah Harari.

Q: If you were to pick one African country to visit because of its impressive green agenda, which would it be? A: I would have to say Rwanda, particularly their forestry. They've done tremendously well on greening investing and preparing the country for a climate future.

Q: What’s your earliest personal memory of the climate crisis? A: When I was in secondary school in Korogwe Tanzania, some very heavy rains washed away an entire series of villages and many people died. I was about 13 years old and we were asked to go and help dig people and animals out. A very personal, very powerful memory.

Q: What’s the most recent change you’ve achieved in your own life to address the climate crisis? A: I gave up having cars six years ago, so I don't own one. I walk or take public transportation. Or if I have to, then I take electric Ubers, unless they're not available. Secondly, my home works on clean renewable energy. And then I don't eat meat, which saves a lot of carbon.

4. Media monitoring

• Alliance: Acumen got the biggest global climate fund to back its $250 million initiative for off-grid solar power in Africa.

• Credit: South African asset manager STANLIB aims to raise $1 billion by end of 2028 for energy transition projects.

• Lead team: LeapFrog, Temasek, and EIB pledged a $500m investment in Green Solutions in Africa and Emerging Asia.

📬 Did a friend send you this newsletter? Welcome, sign up here using their referral link.

Thanks to the Green Rising team for putting this together.