Over the past year, Africa successfully embarked on a new climate trajectory. 

• But major planks of a winning approach are still missing, not least the money. 

Common goals: The most notable change on the continent has been unity of purpose. 

• Climate action had long pitted hydrocarbon giants such as Nigeria and Angola against renewables pioneers such as Kenya and Ethiopia

Alignment: Last year, at the inaugural Africa Climate Summit, some of the most powerful countries still hovered on the sidelines. 

• South Africa appeared more intent on industrial progress than a green future. 

• Together with two other top African economies it initially declined to sign the Nairobi Declaration, which set out a common climate position.

And yet: Between the UN general assembly a year ago and the COP 28 summit in December, existing momentum turned into a joint agenda. 

• Leaders cast off what Kenyan President William Ruto called the “shackles of low ambition”.

The lever: A realisation that the green economy could be Africa’s new growth engine appears to have been a common motivator.

• Even oil giant Nigeria no longer wanted to stand aside as clean-tech investments overtook many traditional sectors.

• Green deals represent almost half of all venture capital on the continent now (see chart).

Clear ambitions: Change is evident not only from speeches but policy. 

• Numerous countries have improved regulations around carbon markets, the import of electric vehicles and the processing of minerals critical for battery production. 

Attention: Climate action has become a dominant issue in African political discourse.

• The volume of misinformation has dropped, thanks to growing public awareness.

• Left-wing concerns about the “hyper-financialisation” and “McKinseyfication” of climate action, i.e. finding market solutions, have dwindled. 

Underlying driver: Africa’s climate trajectory is helped by a narrative shift.

• The continent’s leaders have dropped talk of “victimhood” and ended “blame games”. 

• The Nairobi Declaration presents Africa as a bold pioneer rather than a pitiful beggar.

New positioning: The pitch from African leaders to the global community is simple: Africa did not cause the climate crisis but it presents the best chance to end it.

• Africa has plenty of the resources needed to affect change.

• Investing in Africa’s economies is key to global climate action.

Win-win: A year ago, African leaders started offering rich countries an explicit deal to trade sustainability in the north for prosperity in the south.

• They tried to convince the world that Africa can do heavy lifting on climate. 

The argument: Africa has key "endowments" essential to global decarbonisation.

• Unmatched renewable energy potential including solar and geothermal

• A third of the resources such as minerals needed in green technologies

• Vast forests that can act as carbon sinks if supported properly

In return: Climate action should be linked directly to better economic opportunities for Africa. 

• There would be new for-profit funding mechanisms to drive climate investment

• And a transformation of how Africa raises money on global capital markets

• With the aim of creating millions of new jobs for its young & growing workforce

Key idea: The global fight against climate change must be a growth engine in Africa.

• It could create a green industrial revolution, building on innovation

• Resulting in a multi-billion-dollar investment opportunities 

• Enabling the continent to leapfrog traditional high-carbon development models from Europe, America and Asia

Initial support: Western leaders last year welcomed Africa’s strategic gambit.

• The EU president said, "We fully support financial institutions reform. It is time to move from words to actions."

• The UN secretary-general called for, "An international financial system that is able to provide effective debt mechanisms, longer repayment terms, better borrowing terms."

But since: Western leaders have focused on Gaza, Ukraine, elections and their own interest rates. 

• Global perceptions haven’t yet shifted. The exception is Beijing. 

• Africa is far from the climate powerhouse its leaders envision.

Follow the money: European governments are making lots of relatively small investments that are extremely useful and welcome. 

• Multilateral institutions and philanthropic funders also pitch in. 

• But nothing on a scale that would shift the needle across the continent.

• This still feels more like development aid than a commercial climate compact.

Stuck: Few of the sensible if ambitious reform proposals are on track to be implemented. 

• African borrowers still pay up to 6% more than others with a similar risk profile. 

• Sovereign debts are not paused or written off against green initiatives. 

• Few new finance mechanisms and tools are available for climate action.

Above all: The volume of capital needed in Africa is seemingly not available during hard times in the west. 

• This is not just an issue for Africa. Developing countries globally need $2.4 trillion per year to handle climate change. Current total aid is $200 billion.

Old reality: Sovereign debt crises remain a serious obstacle to a green transition. 

• Governments such as Kenya’s tried to take steps unpopular at home in the short term to stabilise finances and keep the door open for western loans. 

• But they were ultimately defeated by street protests (and their own greed). 

The only good news: None of this has stopped individual sectors and businesses in the green economy from prospering (see our cheat sheet). Still, the global agenda is yet to change. 

2. Cheat sheet: Four green sectors with strong momentum in Africa