Hello - the festivities in New York are in full swing at the NY Climate Week and the UN General Assembly. Once finished, we will report on how Africa’s green concerns have fared. In the meantime, we’re hearing that events are spilling onto the streets and parts of Manhattan have come to a standstill. Hopefully that leaves lots of time to read our newsletter and share it with friends old and new.

⏳ Today’s reading time: 4 mins

1. What African shoes and minerals have in common

Kenya ​​will ban the trade in shoes from next year, said Trade Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria this week, to boost domestic production.

• A similar policy route is also debated by African leaders for minerals critical to battery production, electric vehicles and other climate tech areas.

• Global demand for the minerals is increasing fast, in some cases exponentially.

The news: A growing number of African countries are now implementing trade restrictions for raw lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese or graphite (all crucial to battery performance).

• The aim is to prevent African minerals from being shipped overseas for processing, where most of the value-add occurs.

• If instead processors must stay locally, so the logic goes, African industrialisation gets a boost, generating more jobs and tax revenue.

How it’s done: There are more and less crude ways to force domestic processing.

• Export bans are the most straightforward lever.

• Shipping quotas are a more variable policy option.

• Changes in duty regimes provide the most subtlety.

Who is doing it: At least five African countries have implemented specific restrictions for raw critical minerals (further countries have restricted other minerals).

• Namibia: In June banned the export of most unprocessed crushed lithium ore, cobalt, manganese, graphite and rare earth minerals.

• Zimbabwe: In December said it would only allow shipping of concentrates, with plans to impose a tax on lithium concentrates destined to export markets.

• Ghana: In July approved a green minerals policy to boost the domestic use of lithium.

• DRC: Revised its mining code to put a top tax rate (10%) on strategic minerals shipping; higher than precious metals (3.5%) and gemstones (6%).

• South Africa: Policies aimed at boosting minerals’ domestic processing.

The response: Looming export restrictions are contributing to a recent surge in bilateral supply agreements, driven by international minerals consumers.

• Countries: Saudi Arabia is looking to buy $15 billion worth of mining assets in African countries, Britain inking a deal with Zambia, Japan investing in Namibia, and the US making strategic loans to a Mozambican graphite mine.

• Corporates: Tesla agreeing an offtake deal with Glencore in Congo, and BHP backing a nickel-recycling upstart in Tanzania.

Resource riches: Africa is home to 48.1% of the world's reserves of cobalt, 47.6% of manganese, 21.6% of natural graphite, 5.9% of copper and 5.6% of nickel (overall 30% of mineral resources worldwide).

• Rise in demand: By 2030 copper and nickel demand is expected to rise by 50-70%, cobalt and neodymium by 150%, and graphite and lithium six to seven-fold (assuming a net-zero scenario).

• EU leaders fear becoming too dependent on Chinese minerals, as happened with Russian gas. Hence they want to diversify to African minerals.

Bottom line: The Africa Finance Corporation reckons the onshoring of minerals processing could earn the continent an extra $228 billion a year.

• For this purpose, it will fund new transport links in DRC, Zambia and Sierra Leone as well as new industrial zones in DRC and Gabon.

2. Imagine an Africa without oil & gas

Climate action will have many unintended consequences – one is the negative impact of declining global oil & gas demand in Africa.

• Who is affected? The chart above shows the continent’s main hydrocarbon producers.

The news: The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that oil & gas demand will start declining by 2030.

• The IEA's annual World Energy Outlook, out next month, will declare that "the world is on the cusp of a historic turning point".

• This is “driven by the striking rise of clean tech like solar & EVs, and economic shifts in China,” says IEA executive director Fatih Birol.