Aviation is climate’s frontier but not yet ready for take-off

Africa will hear a lot more this year about cleaning up emissions from planes. And the first solutions are being trialled.

What’s trending: The continent has the fastest growing aviation sector in the world. 

• African air traffic is projected to grow 7.4% in 2024, exceeding global averages. 

• The sector is expected to double in size by 2040 to $7 billion in annual revenues.

Why it matters: Aviation currently generates 3% of global CO2 emissions. 

• As other sectors reduce carbon footprints, aviation becomes a more prominent target. 

The challenge: Jet engines require high-performance fuel that’s also light-weight.

• So far, there is no direct substitute for kerosene. 

• Hydrogen alternatives still take up too much space on planes. 

• Batteries are too heavy to be used effectively without major redesign.

Innovative solution: Something called Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is however taking root. 

• It cuts CO2 emissions by up to 80% throughout its lifecycle.

• And seamlessly blends with regular jet fuel, so can run as a hybrid.

New fuel: SAF is made from diverse feedstocks using various production techniques:

• Reclaimed cooking oils or plant oils

• Biomass or waste materials processed into liquid hydrocarbons

• Renewable alcohols like ethanol or butanol

• Other biomass sources processed via thermochemical or biological routes

The downsides: SAF costs are 3-5 times higher than fossil fuel and current feedstock availability is limited. 

• Proponents remark that the solar industry faced similar issues a generation ago – before prospering. Commercialisation takes time.

• More research and innovation will lower costs and boost efficiency, they suggest.

African angle: In recent months, several SAF projects have sprung up on the continent. 

• Zimbabwe announced cooperation plans with the EU and others to pioneer SAF production by 2030.

• Germany's AIREG will champion the use of SAF in South Africa.

• A research study by WWF says South Africa has the technical potential to produce up to 4.5 billion litres of SAF annually, following strict sustainability requirements.

• Aerospace startup Cloudline raised $6 million to realise carbon-free aviation in South Africa. 

Competitive advantage: Proponents suggest Africa has vast potential to generate SAF feedstock, given unused potential in agriculture. 

• But boosting production would require major investment as well as new regulations to attain high-quality feedstock. 

• Even proponents say this is a multi-decade undertaking and unlikely to yield quick gains.

The controversy: Views differ whether a food-insecure continent – which Africa will remain in the climate era – should use its agricultural land to power planes. 

• Higher demand for land and harvested grains would push up food prices. 

• The result could mean a redistribution of wealth from poor to rich. 

• Alternatively, SAF production could boost job growth in industrial farming. 

Environmental concerns: Beyond humans, SAF may also impact the climate negatively. 

• Expanding intensive agricultural land use will lead to further deforestation, hit water tables and create biodiversity loss.

• Current SAF production, particularly from corn, uses more energy than it replaces.

In sum: The aviation sector will eventually end fossil fuel use like every other industry. But whether African agricultural products are the best alternative remains to be proven.