1. Is Africa way ahead or far behind in terms of hydro power?

Home to several of the planet's major rivers, sub-Saharan Africa plans to increase hydro-electricity from 37,000 to around 100,000 MW by 2040. 

• Views diverge among climate experts if that’s a step in the right direction.

• Damming rivers to create renewable power comes at a steep cost. 

State of play: Massive hydroelectric projects have a long history in Africa, going back to Egypt’s construction of the Aswan Dam in the 1960s. 

• Six African nations (see chart) get more than 90% of their electricity from hydro. 

• But less than 10% of Africa's hydro power potential has been utilised so far. 

The news: Mozambique just announced plans for a $80 billion (!) plan, adding 14,000 MW, to become one of Africa’s biggest hydro power producers.

Ambitious plans: Total African electric capacity now is 245,000 MW, of which 17% is from hydro. 

• That’s set to increase to about 413,000 MW by 2040, of which 23% would be hydro. 

The future: Some 43,000 MW of new hydro power is scheduled for development by 2045 across 12 countries forming the Southern Africa Power Pool. 

Mega project: That excludes the Grand Inga Dam in DRC, the world’s largest hydro project, with a potential long-term capacity exceeding 40,000 MW. 

• It serves as a symbol of Africa's untapped renewable energy potential. 

• Yet, securing capital and addressing environmental & social concerns is tricky.

The benefits: Hydro power is cheap, reliable and mature as a technology.

• In Kenya, hydro power costs  3 cents/kWh, solar 5.5 cents and wind 8 cents.

Out of step: Africa is almost alone globally in betting on hydro power for its future. Only China is keeping up.

• Large, state-owned projects in Africa and Asia are expected to account for over 75% of new hydro power capacity through 2030.

The debate: The reasons for pulling back from hydro vary by country.

• Some see dropping prices for wind and solar undermining hydro’s allure. 

• Others respond to growing environmental and social concerns as river valleys are flooded, communities displaced and riverine ecosystems destroyed.

• High upfront costs and long earn-back periods also act as a deterrent.

The irony: Perhaps the biggest long-term challenge to hydro is climate change itself.

• Changing weather patterns mean that river flows will drop in some regions and become less predictable in others, especially in southern Africa.

• Climate models forecast a 3% decline in the continent's hydro capacity.

• Almost half of African capacity could become uneconomical under various scenarios.

Size matters: Moderating its ambition may benefit Africa. Smaller may be better. Mega dams have a history of underperforming. 

• Building them tends to involve delays, corruption and cost overruns. 

• Operational failures have outsized impact in case of reliance on a single dam.

• Simpler hydro projects are increasingly seen as more attractive.

Tech solution: Like other forms of renewable energy, hydro benefits from innovation.

• Enhancements in turbine efficiency can increase power generation while minimising environmental impact.

• Pumping systems enable flexible and reliable energy storage with minimal investment.

• Run-of-river projects offer less intrusive methods of harnessing hydroelectric power.

Killer application: Research suggests that hydro generation in Africa could be increased by 10% with two low-cost initiatives:

• Utilising the many reservoir-dams already in existence to generate electricity.

• Upgrading existing turbine and generator technology to improve performance.

Access the individual story here.

2. Cheat sheet: Three things to know about African superdams

(i) The current kings of the lot are the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the Aswan High Dam in Egypt and the Cahora Bassa Dam in Mozambique. They have a joint capacity of 11,000 MW. (The top ten are mapped above.)

(ii) This is still comparatively modest compared to the world’s three biggest dams: The Three Gorges Dam in China, the Itaipu Dam in Brazil & Paraguay, and the Xiluodu Dam in China. Together they have a capacity of 50,000 MW.

(iii) But if or when the Grand Inga Dam in DR Congo is built, its capacity alone would be 40,000 MW. Or twice the capacity of the current world leader, the Three Gorges Dam.

Access the individual story here.

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