Bold renewables plan or puffy fantasy?

The energy community scratched its collective head this week when news broke of a new wind farm three times bigger than anything currently run in Africa.

The news: Parastatal KenGen will build a 1,000 megawatt (MW) facility in northern Kenya's Marsabit county, so reported Bloomberg, calling it "Africa's biggest wind farm".

• Expected completion date is 2028.

• To be funded by 75% debt and 25% equity.

By comparison: It’s big indeed (also see chart above).

• Total African wind power capacity is just 6,500 MW.

• Africa’s currently biggest farm (Turkana in Kenya) produces 300 MW.

• Egypt has plans for a 500 MW facility, by far its biggest.

Why it matters: Renewables have struggled with government support. So the move by KenGen could signal a new era, given its state links.

• Kenya’s government has so far failed to issue new power purchase agreements (PPA).

• Even completed projects such as the Menengai geothermal plant can't get online.

Industry reaction: Renewables insiders speaking to Green Rising were skeptical:

• “This is hot air”

• “Not happening any time soon”

• “We’ve heard this before”

Obstacle course: There are doubts beyond thin government support.

• Struggling KenGen is seen as unlikely to raise $250 million or more in equity needed to fund the Marsabit farm.

• It usually takes a decade to build a 1,000-MW facility, making 2028 completion unlikely.

Okay, but: The project is still possible – with political will. Egypt has got large plants on the grid in five years.

The agenda: Kenya aims for 100% renewable energy by 2030 (currently 92%).

• Wind makes up only 15-20%, yet the potential is undoubted.

Why now: Wind farming economics have improved.

• Cost per MW / h is expected to drop from $48 in 2019 to $30 in 2030.

• Better energy storage makes unreliable generation less problematic.

Why them: Established in 1954, KenGen is older than the Kenyan state, which owns 70%.

• The parastatal has strong relationships with large international funders.

The impact: Progress in agriculture, carbon markets and electric vehicles matters a great deal for Africa's climate. But renewable energy is hardest and most important. Why?

• It has the greatest multiplier effect, boosting many other industries.

• It has the most entrenched interests - see Eskom in South Africa.

• It needs the largest amounts of capital compared to other climate sectors.

Marsabit test: Whether the new mega wind farm gets built will say a lot about African climate action.