Can new weather-tech boost African crops?

Weather forecasting is key to sustainable agriculture in Africa. And climate change is further increasing that dependency. 

• But so far African forecasting has been flawed. It is failing farmers ever more as weather patterns become jumbled. 

Why is that: Meteorological models used in forecasting were developed in the Global North. They’re not fit for purpose in sub-Saharan Africa. 

• American and European weather patterns are driven by large-scale temperature and pressure changes.

• But in tropical Africa, weather develops on a smaller scale and much more rapidly. 

What to do: African monitoring must become more granular to be accurate. 

• Unlike Global North forecast, it cannot rely on monitoring of 50km grids.

• This misses small changes and causes inaccurate predictions. 

New products: Weather-tech startups are trying to solve for this, including with AI. 

• Ignitia or Tomorrownow.org collect super localised data, using remote sensing technologies as well as satellites. 

• These are turned into actionable forecasts for farmers.

• Other players in this space are CropMon, MaliCrop and Kukua.

Proven impact: Experts say that accurate forecasts can make the difference between the success and failure of crops.

Yield curve: Industry insiders this week met in Nairobi at the Agrifin event to compare digital solutions. 

• Ignitia said its new models for the tropics increase accuracy from 39% to at least 84%.

• Tomorrownow.org claimed crop yield improve by 10% to 300%.

Why it matters: African agriculture has a massive social and economic footprint.

• More than 60% of sub-Saharan Africans are smallholder farmers.

• About 23% of sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP comes from agriculture. 

The impact: As weather patterns become less favourable, crop and livestock yields generally fall. 

• For many African crops, a few more degrees difference drastically increases vulnerability.  

• A 2020 Mckinsey study predicts potentially severe crop failures. 

Biggest vulnerability: Rainwater changes are especially painful in Africa. Livestock and crops are 95% rainfed and insurance is almost non-existent.

Better protection: If weather forecasting is to help African farmers to adapt, the continent needs: 

• Better monitoring infrastructure, including ground stations to feed new models

• Adequate communication systems for rapid data exchanges

• More qualified meteorological staff to run both

Official help: Governments will need to lean in or change. 

• In Mali and Sierra Leone, meteorological agencies are monopolies and oppose private involvement. 

Reality check: It comes down to money. Investment in the sector is low. 

• Meteorological services in Africa have on average 25% less cash than elsewhere in the world.