Ethiopia’s ambitious mobility strategy is extraordinary by any standard. 

• In February 2024, Ethiopia became the first country globally to ban the import of all non-electric vehicles. 

• To encourage EV adoption, Ethiopia has implemented drastic tax breaks and reduced import taxes significantly. 

• Ethiopia also launched EV manufacturing plants to create domestic production in the sector. 

The goal: The government in Addis Ababa wants to see at least 440,000 electric vehicles by 2030.

• It claims that the low-income country already has about 100,000 EVs, though no full accounting is given.

• Its 2030 goal would put Ethiopia in the current global top ten of EV countries, ahead of Sweden and Japan.

• The government hopes to get there with lots of carrots and sticks, or call it extreme regulatory activism. 

Complex motives: Officials in Addis Ababa are driven by a cocktail of reasons, some climate-related. 

• Cities would see improvements in air quality and greenhouse gas emissions. 

• Officials also want to boost the use of renewable energy as a viable form of powering the nation. 

• About 96% of Ethiopia's electricity is already hydroelectric, following vast investments.

Yes but: The main drivers behind this strategy are commercial and economic. 

• Ethiopia wants to reduce drastically the about 5% of GDP it spends on fuel imports. 

• The establishment of local EV manufacturing facilities can create jobs for its fast-growing population. 

• Incentives for EV adoption should attract both domestic and foreign investment, boosting economic growth.

• The projected lifetime cost of an EV is lower than for a fuel vehicle, boosting national mobility in the long term. 

Devil in the: The Ethiopian government is working hard to fill in the details behind its eye-catching policy announcements.

• It will establish 2,226 charging stations (1,176 in Addis and 1,050 in the regions) but that’s still far from enough. 

• Officials are developing a national bureaucracy to “facilitate private sector engagement”. Sounds cumbersome.

• Public education campaigns are meant to create 110 million EV enthusiasts, overcoming a lack of awareness and buy-in.

• Further tax reductions may be needed beyond the 15% on finished EVs and 5% on assembly kits (parts are already duty-free).

Many challenges: If this were easy, others would already be doing it, as one Ethiopian executive remarked. 

• A large population spread out over a vast and varied geography inflates the scale of the needed charging infrastructure.  

• While most of the power supply is already clean, the sheer volume of necessary electricity cannot be covered from existing sources.

• Even at low or no tax, the upfront cost of an EV is high. Consumer leasing and financing options are insufficient. 

Spotlit still: Other African nations are grappling with similar challenges, including fuel import dependency. Some are acting already.

• Tunisia reduced customs duties on EV charging equipment

• Uganda has waived import duties on electric two-wheelers.

Big ones: None of the major African economies though are following the Ethiopian example so far. Each has their own approach. 

• South Africa relies on its advanced fuel auto industry, with local manufacturers producing both fossil fuel and electric vehicles. 

• Kenya is focused on infrastructure development and local assembly of buses and motorcycles. Tax incentives are modest.

• Nigeria is trying to catch up after a slow start. The state is announcing new initiatives every month. But it lacks enough clean electricity. 

Must have: Four conditions are useful for the Ethiopian model to work (and not even Ethiopia has all of them). 

• It requires lots of renewable energy. And…

• An ability to finance charging networks and consumer loans. Plus,

• Over-reliance on fuel imports boosts EVs’ financial attractiveness.

• And high population density (rather than size) increases efficiency.

Pattern match: Which countries fit this in Africa? We have scored members of the African Union on the four categories. 

• Reliable data on population density and renewable energy per head are easily available. 

• For fuel imports we calculated the estimated cost as a percentage of the country’s GDP. 

• And for the ability to finance vehicles and infrastructure we relied on GDP per head data. 

Mixed picture: Our map above shows the by-country results (see more here). Some general themes can be gleaned. 

• Africa’s small island nations score best for a quick transition, given their high population densities and GDPs. 

• Kenya and Egypt score in the top third, thanks to their economic heft and despite their land mass.

• Just how ambitious Ethiopia’s plan is becomes clear from it placing in midfield, along with South Africa and Nigeria.

• The bottom-ranked country for a quick mobility transition is Mali, which scores badly on every indicator.

2. Cheat sheet: Five reasons for high fuel imports per head

(i) Limited refining capacity: Many African countries lack sufficient processing infrastructure. So even if they produce oil, their fuel must be imported. 

(ii) Lack of investment in renewables: Green substitutes for fossil fuel require massive, long-term capital spend.