🚁 Heli view: Can green investments outpace Africa’s climate hammer?

Let’s start with 2024 data illustrating the challenge faced by the continent. The impact of climate change on living creatures is by now evident. 

• 40 is the age above which elephants will likely die off as climate change accelerates. The mammals’ average age is currently 65. A new study warns, “Old elephants are expected to be highly vulnerable to diseases and drought induced deaths.“ 

• 45 million is the current number of African children living through multiple and often overlapping crises that are intensified by climate change, including cholera outbreaks, malnutrition, drought and floods. 

Money maladies: The impact of climate change on Africa’s economies is less well-known but no less severe.

• 7.1% is by how much Africa’s GDP will fall every year in the long term as a result of climate change, according to a new study. Also projected is a 30% fall in revenue from crops and resulting hunger for 200 million people. 

• 9% is the percentage of public budgets that many African countries are diverting to respond to climate extremes. This results in an average loss of 2% to 5% of GDP due to climate change. 

Mounting costs: The impact of this on public finances is a reality today, not some future concern. 

• $15 billion is how much Africa loses in climate adaptation costs every year, says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. That is equivalent to the annual GDP of the Republic of Congo.

• 0.5% is the projection for Africa’s per capita growth in 2024, a stark contrast to the 2.4% average between 2000 and 2014. Factors such as conflict and climate change costs are slowing economic progress. 

• 240% is the percentage by which public debt levels across the continent increased between 2008 and 2022. Debt burdens have become one of the main obstacles to investment in sustainability.

Funding gap: The need for global financial support is uncontroversial – not least since Africa is the least culpable yet most impacted continent.

• $277 billion is the amount required annually for Africa to adapt to climate change, says the African Development Bank (AfDB). 

• $2.5 trillion is the amount of climate finance that Africa will be short of by 2030, says the UN. 

• $3 trillion is the amount Africa needs by 2030 to address the impact of climate change, says the African Union. 

Not nothing: Some funds are trickling in and efforts continue to boost them, though far below estimated needs.

• $2.4 billion is the amount South Africa expects to receive this year from a climate finance pact with rich nations. 

• $30 billion is the total that Africa currently receives to adapt to climate change, says the AfDB. 

• $25 billion is the amount President William Ruto of Kenya expects in the 17th replenishment of the African Development Fund, which supports 37 low-income countries across the continent.

Empty coffers: Most funding in the future needs to be private, according to a paper published on the IMF website. Western taxpayers won’t dig deep into their pockets.

• $4.4 billion is the total that the continent has raised in ESG-compliant financing compared to $287 billion globally.

• 40% of the new capital invested in African startups in the first quarter of this year went to climate tech ventures (cutting across multiple sectors). 

The answer: For better or worse, Africa’s challenges appear to call for some form of green industrialisation – embracing what can benefit both planet and prosperity. That’s started…

• $33 billion is the total value of the green ammonia deals signed by Egypt’s sovereign wealth fund with European developers. 

Waste management: Cleaning up can pay dividends. The circular economy is standing by.

• $250 billion is the value of Nigeria’s untapped market in waste management, according to Pioneer Waste Master, a consulting firm.

• 54% is the percentage of diapers that are improperly disposed of in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria, being dumped, burned or buried.

The motherlode: Sustainable businesses and renewable technologies often require rare minerals. A lot of them can be found in Africa. 

• $1.9 trillion is the projected revenue from African battery minerals like copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium between 2024 and 2050.

• $4 billion is the amount committed in the past two years by the US government to build the Lobito Corridor, a railway to export Zambian copper to America. 

• $93 billion is the estimated value of cobalt deposits in DR Congo secured by Chinese firms from stakes in 15 out of 19 mines that produce over 70% of the world's cobalt.

Energising the continent: Might all that mineral wealth help to power a green economy? 

• 2% is the likely African portion of the $2 trillion in global clean energy investments in 2024, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

• 561 million is the number of Africans that will still lack access to energy in 2030, unless relevant investments are boosted, says the IEA. 

• $21 billion is the amount that South Africa's power utility needs to boost its grid for renewable energy integration. This is equivalent to 5% of the country’s GDP.

Green shoots: The energy transition will be slow – but it is showing some early results.

• 24 gigawatts is the amount of clean energy Africa could potentially export to Europe by 2035 via sea cables, or more than a third of Africa’s current renewables capacity.

• $85 billion is the amount that South Africa plans to invest in its transition from coal to renewable energy. This includes reskilling miners for employment in new industries.

• 1,519% is the projected percentage increase of jobs in Africa's renewable energy sector between 2019 and 2030.

Vroom-vroom: The energy transition has spawned a boom in electric mobility on the continent. 

• 21 is the number of African countries that already assemble or manufacture electric vehicles or have concrete plans for it in the near term. 

• $21,700 is the amount needed to buy the new Dayun Yuehu S5, the most affordable battery-electric vehicle on African roads. A charge lasts 330 km.

The big one: A green transition in Africa is hard to imagine without tackling agriculture, which engages about half the continent’s population. So far, this is more hope (or threat) than reality.

• 36% is the proportion of the world's agricultural land that is located in Africa (1.7 billion hectares).

• 4.4 million is the number of hectares lost annually in Africa due to deforestation (almost twice the land area of Rwanda).

• 40% is the percentage of funding received by climate-centric agriculture startups in Africa compared to non-sustainable startups in the sector. The percentage doubled from the previous year.