Investment in climate-friendly business sectors will boost formal employment in Africa by several percentage points this decade. 

• Up to 3.3 million new green jobs are forecast across Africa by 2030. 

• All formal employment on the continent currently amounts to about 70 million.

• The near-term weight and human impact of the green economy is hard to miss. 

Our source: This is the conclusion of a new report called “Forecasting Green Jobs in Africa”, published today. 

• It was led by Shortlist, the talent advisory firm, staffed by BCG, the consultancy, and funded by FSD Africa, the UK government offshoot. 

• Until now, no study had rigorously estimated the likely number of jobs in Africa’s green economy.

• Guesses were ultra long-term, focused on particular sub-sectors and usually quite fuzzy.

Sector leads: The new study concludes that the main job growth is in five business areas: 

• Energy and power

• Mobility and transportation

• Agriculture and nature

• Construction and real estate

• Manufacturing and materials

The knock-out: Most surprising among the conclusions is the coming dominance of the solar sector. 

• Up to 1.7 million new jobs, or 57% of the total, are connected to sun-powered energy. 

Power law: The energy sector altogether is said to generate up to 2 million jobs, or 70% of the total. 

• In addition to the 1.7 million solar jobs, power transmission and distribution will create up to 197,000 new jobs, or 6% of the total.

Why sunshine: The dominance of solar is explained by four factors. 

• General energy poverty is one of Africa’s most pressing problems.  

• Solar power is universally accessible with short deployment cycles. 

• Panel installation is always local and requires substantial labour.

• Solar is the only renewable that scales up to grid level and down to household level.

Second fiddle: The other major employment generator is agriculture and nature-related work. The total new jobs estimate is up to 700,000, or 25% of the total. This includes:

• Climate-smart agriculture technology for up to 377,000 jobs, or 13%. 

• Aquaculture and poultry up to 189,000. 

• Ecosystem and nature-based solutions up to 117,000.

The underpinnings: When you read about African development, four things always come up – and here too they are relevant. New green job growth depends on: 

• Better policies

• Better infrastructure

• More capital

• More skilling

Skill sets: The need for qualifications is clustered at both ends of the spectrum. 

• Two fifths of new jobs require vocational or academic training 

• Another two fifths are in casual labour, sales and customer care roles 

• And one fifth of jobs sit in a middling general and administrative layer

Job locations: Employment will be spread across the continent. But five big countries together make up more than 20% of the growth. 

• South Africa due to its existing development level

• Kenya given its advancement in solar and other renewables

• Nigeria with its high population growth projections

• DR Congo and Ethiopia with strong hydropower

Solar locations: Based on current investment trends, Egypt, Morocco and Namibia have extra high potential for installed solar capacity. 

• Around 40% of the solar jobs will go to unskilled labourers and sales agents.

• They may not all enjoy great stability of employment as contract workers. 

The kicker: The report only counts direct jobs. But one could consider indirect ones too – think farmers planting trees for carbon credits, taxi drivers riding e-bikes or small retailers staying open later with solar lights. 

• With these included, some experts project green jobs numbers in Africa of up to 100 million by 2050.

• Paul Breloff, CEO of Shortlist, said: “Now policymakers, funders and workforce developers need to step up to meet this near-term demand with effective training, apprenticeships and skill matching, in hope of achieving Africa’s green promise.”