🚁 Heli view: We need to talk about CH4

Natural gas could be transformative for Africa’s green economy. But its accelerating success must not crush other sustainable sectors.

  • The main risk is to renewables, green hydrogen and electric mobility.

  • But first the upside…

African natural gas accounts for 7.5% of the world's proven reserves. 

  • Nigeria, Algeria, Mozambique and Senegal are the main gas countries. 

  • Extraction has almost doubled since 2000 thanks to new investments.

Cash cow: The continent exports 60% of its gas, generating much needed foreign income.

  • Algeria has two major intercontinental pipelines that export gas to Europe.

  • The country earns $15 billion annually. Nigerian gas generates $8 billion. 

Going big: Africa's role as a global gas supplier is expected to grow. 

  • Sales are set to increase 4.5% per year until 2030. 

  • Global growth was 0.5% in 2023 and 2.5% last year.

  • Africa will only lag the Middle East by volume growth globally by 2050.

  • Investment in Africa’s natural gas sector is projected to top $115 billion.

Putin push: Demand from Europe is driving new investments in Africa. 

  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine upset EU gas markets and boosted Africa demand.

  • Europeans buy 90% of the continent’s gas, while being Africa’s top climate funder.

At home: Gas consumption on the continent is small but rising.

  • Africa consumes 4% of global natural gas, far below Asia (21%), and America (27%).

  • Gas fuels 42% of Africa’s electricity, especially in Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria.

  • Fertilizer production and petrochemicals also rely on gas as feedstock.  

Magic juice: More gas use could grow business sectors across Africa. 

  • Gas-based fertilisers boost crop yields, addressing food insecurity.  

  • Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) vehicles reduce reliance on imported diesel.

  • African governments push gas as a catalyst for industrialisation and jobs.  

The champions: To gas advocates in the private sector it is a form of clean energy.

  • South African miners uses gas to reduce coal dependency and cut emissions.  

  • Nigeria boosts gas use to avoid burning other biomass and reduce deforestation.

  • Metal processing and cement production substitute gas for diesel to decarbonise.

  • Tanzania expands the use of gas in cooking to reduce indoor pollution. 

The critics: A potential negative impact of natural gas on the environment is clear.

  • Production in Africa is 80% more carbon-intensive than global averages due to leaks during extraction and transportation.

  • Nigerian flaring of gas is linked to respiratory illnesses, acid rain and premature deaths in nearby communities.

  • Coastal gas infrastructure threatens marine ecosystems through habitat disruption and pollution.

Category risk: Gas expansion also means locking Africa into fossil fuel dependency.  

  • Renewables could create more jobs per MWh than gas, even in Nigeria and Senegal.

  • Gas exports are a volatile economic foundation. Prices are set to fall from 2030. 

  • Investments are made over decades, leaving little flexibility in a transition.

More immediately: The risk is that gas could starve other sustainable sectors of capital. 

  • Unlike gas, newer sectors often still have to prove their economic worth.

  • In an already tricky investment climate, this could hamper green growth.

Power play: The renewables sector is vulnerable. Gas could undercut its momentum.

  • Solar and wind energy are making great strides in Africa.  

  • Miners and industrial firms are converting to renewable power systems. 

  • But gas hasn’t given up. In places it may indeed fit alongside renewables.

Latest darling: The green hydrogen sector has recently attracted billion-dollar investments.

  • Here too gas sees a competitor. Hydrogen as a mass fuel may still be years away.

  • But success will be harder to achieve if it is replacing gas rather than oil.

Mobility revolution: And might the cars of Africa’s future be powered by compressed natural gas (CNG) rather than electric batteries?

  • South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt and Tanzania are investing in CNG vehicle conversions.

  • They say this will cut emissions cheaply and soon – even if by less, which is true.

  • The danger here is that Africa’s nascent electric vehicle sector loses momentum. 

  • This could impact job creation in vehicle assembly plants just springing up.

Two-track solution: The continent can and should leverage gas for growth – while doubling down on renewables, green hydrogen and electric mobility. 

  • It has little choice but to try and finesse multiple opportunities alongside each other.

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