🚁 Heli view: What to learn from single-minded Namibians

Then-president Hage Geingob stunned his people in 2021 when he announced a plan for Namibia to become a global hydrogen powerhouse. 

• The sandy country of 3 million people had no industrial base. Nor had most citizens heard of hydrogen since chemistry class at school.

• But the wily president spotted an opportunity. Namibia’s abundant renewable energy and its proximity to international shipping lanes suited green hydrogen production.

Make friends: The president ignored scepticism and set out to build a support network for a sustainable industrial revolution beside the southern Atlantic.  

• Namibian deserts are among the sunniest places in Africa. Local renewables plants could power electrolysers to generate hydrogen (and desalinate the required water).

• The president pulled in investment partners from South Africa to Germany, and four different production facilities were set along the country’s coastline.

Four years later: Namibia is emerging as a major player in green hydrogen, i.e. sustainably generated, and is expected to produce 300,000 tonnes in 2026

• The plan is for up to 12 million tonnes per year by 2050 (Germany is projected to produce 14 million tonnes by then).

• The green hydrogen sector may more than double Namibia’s GDP of $12 billion — if all goes according to plan. 

• The sector could employ 250,000 people by 2040 or almost 10% of the population.

The trick: The need for economies of scale means countries of 3 million people cannot compete in multiple global markets.

• Namibians realised that but thought they could win in one if they swung fully behind it. In one sector, they could optimise regulations, skilling and other relevant inputs. 

Not easy: The effort to stand up a hydrogen economy has been arduous.

• Innovative financial structures were needed to secure funding. 

• A dedicated Green Hydrogen Council ensures proper planning and procurement.

• Operators must adhere to rigorous environmental standards.

Challenges remain: Whether hydrogen will feed Namibia one day remains to be seen. Much could still go wrong. 

• Even success is dangerous. Oil nations suffer from what’s known as “Dutch disease”. 

• Holland’s 1970s gas sales drove currency appreciation, undermining other sectors. 

• Still, Namibian hydrogen is the envy of many across Africa’s green economy.

The lesson: Priotising one green lane is working for Namibia (though other lanes prosper too).

• The local workforce is specialising in hydrogen skills, increasing talent density. 

• Investors and operators benefit from local networks that shorten execution cycles.

• The need for rigorous but streamlined policy frameworks helps other sectors as well.

Relevant forerunners: Namibia is not the first African country to learn this lesson. 

• Botswana's strategic emphasis on diamond mining transformed its economy. 

• Diamonds account for 80% of its export revenue and contribute 30% to GDP.

More than minnows: Medium-size nations too can play this game, including in green sectors.

• Morocco this year became the largest outside source of cars for the EU, ahead of China and Japan. 

• Its government offers substantial financial incentives for automotive companies. This now extends to electric vehicles.

The flip side: Casting the industrial net too wide tends to end poorly.

• Long uninterested in cleantech, Nigeria has belatedly woken up – but is now chasing after every green coin that glimmers. 

• Kenya’s focus on renewables has been a great success, but it gets distracted by new baubles in sectors such as hydrogen and nuclear. 

Next winners: More governments are mirroring Namibia’s approach to green niches.

• Ethiopia has banned fuel cars and significantly reduced customs duties for EV imports, planning for 400,000 electric vehicles by 2032. 

• Rwanda is following a similar path by optimising regulations, skilling and funding.

Lane picking: The green economy is not a single opportunity one might grab. 

• It’s many – and chasing them all causes indigestion.

• African nations have… but also need to make choices.