🚁 Heli view: When elephants stampede, the grass grows faster

Our map above shows African countries in red that drive on the same side as China. They are the target of a new campaign to export used electric vehicles to Africa. 

• One million used EVs are expected to arrive within two to three years. 

• The continent currently has perhaps a few ten-thousand.  

Red tide: China inaugurated its first used EV inspection point for export in Shanghai last month. 

• Chinese production overcapacity is expected to make usually expensive EVs affordable in developing countries.

High revs: About 10 million EVs will be made in China this year. They account for more than half the new car registrations in the country.

• The high adoption rate has flooded the domestic Chinese used car market. 

• Now it is set to reshape the African one as well.

Rivals on wheels: China is not alone in targeting African mobility. American wheels are competing for pole position. Mobility is the latest arena of superpower rivalry.

• US president Joe Biden was in Angola this week to boost American transport deals.

• Chinese president Xi Jinping was in Morocco last week to do the same. 

The prize example: America and China are behind duelling major rail lines leading from Zambia’s copper belt to opposite coasts on the continent. 

• Mr Biden showcased the US-backed Lobito Corridor railway that connects Zambia and DR Congo to Angola and the Atlantic coast at a cost of $4 billion. 

• It enables the shipping to America of minerals mined in Africa’s interior and critical for technologies such as electric vehicles.

Speed up: The Angolan railway will cut transit times from 45 days by truck to less than 36 hours.

• Proponents project that 80% of minerals extracted from Zambia and DR Congo will be go on this route by 2030.

• Plans are also in place for a highway connecting Angolan Atlantic ports to Mozambique on the Indian Ocean, further integrating regional trade.

Belated realisation: Transport is not just a key market in Africa but also pivotal to control of other sectors. 

• The International Energy Agency forecasts a twenty-fold increase by 2040 in demand for nickel and cobalt, much of it mined in southern Africa.

Railway battle: China is as keen on the minerals as America and has been financing the refurbishment of a rival rail line from Zambia to Tanzania’s Indian Ocean coast.  

• The railway was originally constructed in the 1970s with Chinese assistance but deteriorated over the years and currently operates below capacity. 

• China will spend $1 billion to divert mineral exports away from Western markets.

• The refurbished line will be under the control of a Chinese state-owned company.

Leadership focus: It is telling where each superpower leader travelled in Africa. While Mr Biden went to Angola for a freight line, Mr Xi visited Morocco, Africa’s largest car maker. 

• Rivalry is not limited to rails but equally evident on African roads. 

EV et al: Most cars on the continent currently come from Europe, Japan, South-East Asia and the Middle East.

• But that’s about to change, and not only due to the influx of used Chinese EVs.  

America first: Tesla, led by South African Elon Musk, this year became the biggest employer in the electric mobility space in Africa. 

• The firm has 929 senior staff on the continent, up 177% in the past 12 months. 

• Tesla came to Africa in 2021, when it installed the first Supercharger in Morocco.

Behind but: China’s BYD, the world’s largest EV maker, has a mere 88 senior staff based in Africa but is catching up fast. It opened showrooms in 12 African countries this year. 

• Almost a third of BYD employees in Africa are salespeople. 

• The comparable figure for Tesla is less than 20%.

Secret sauce: China is building local partnerships to expand sales; America not so much.

• BYD allied itself with Pilatus in Zambia, Ampersand in Rwanda and BasiGo in Kenya. 

• BYD also tailors models to the African market, redesigning for local conditions.

• Other Chinese EV makers are following suit, not least since new US and EU tariffs make Africa comparatively more attractive all of a sudden. 

Beyond partnerships: China is also transferring technology and industrial production to the continent (something it never did with other export successes). 

• State-owned automaker BAIC Group is building an assembly plant in Egypt, aiming to produce 20,000 electric vehicles annually from 2025

• Chinese auto giants XPeng, Geely, Neta, Chery, JAC Motors, Dongfeng and SAIC have all announced plans to assemble or manufacture vehicles in Africa. 

• Mr Xi's visit last week came soon after Gotion High-Tech announced that it’ll build Africa’s first gigafactory in Morocco at a cost of $1.3 billion.

China is winning: America is falling behind when it comes to transport investments.

• The breadth of China’s engagement and its focus on end-consumers is unmatched.

• This assumes the trend of China not just selling but also making stuff in Africa holds.

• All of which would entail substantial benefits for Africa. May the elephants stampede.