How African geothermal power will overtake Europe by 2030

The continent is used to playing catchup in climate solutions. But when it comes to exploiting energy from the earth’s core, Africa is set to take more of a leadership role. 

The news: Africa’s geothermal energy sector is on a path of significant growth, says a new report from Rystad, a Norwegian specialist consultancy. 

• Investments are expected to surpass $35 billion by 2050.

• This will boost capacity from the current 1 Gigawatt (GW) to 13 GW.

• The first step is a doubling of capacity in the coming seven years, surpassing Europe. 

Behind the news: Africa benefits from several factors beyond favourable geology (but that too!). 

• Growing state initiatives to mitigate risks, such as covering research costs and an AU mitigation facility, attract more private companies.

• Decades of experience are starting to pay off. DRC was the third country globally to go geothermal in 1952, and Kenya has since created top expertise. 

• New technologies, including closed-loop geothermal systems, are making it possible to send water down to the earth’s molten core at ever lower costs. 

Geographic spread: More African nations are tapping their geothermal potential, which dwarves total installed capacity today.

• Kenya is the current champion and will continue to expand fast.

• Ethiopia is the surging crown prince in the sector, see chart above. 

• The rest of East Africa is following behind, thanks to shared geology.

Going further: A recent study identified 14 promising geothermal areas in Africa, far beyond the current spread. They share geological characteristics suitable for direct heating applications.

• Northern countries such as Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia

• Atlantic nations such as Liberia and Namibia 

• Southern countries such as Zambia and South Africa

The skinny: Geothermal energy involves creating steam to power turbines by piping water far below the earth’s surface to heat it.

• This makes for extremely dependable power generation, on a par with nuclear energy.

• Geothermal is twice as reliable as fossil fuel and wind power, beating solar by 4x.

Reality check: Financial limitations pose a hurdle to geothermal energy growth in Africa. 

• Drilling a single geothermal well costs $6 million, and setting up a typical 165-megawatt plant is $300 million.

• Exploration work is time-consuming, often taking years without a return. Payback periods are on average 13 years. 

Big brother: Unsurprisingly, oil companies and hydrocarbon drillers, who are familiar with such economics but fear for their traditional markets, are showing an interest. 

• Insiders pronounce “Geothermal—a perfect fit for oil and gas players”.