The answer is not difficult. Experts reckon it takes $90 billion to connect 380 million extra Africans to electricity. 

• Or $237 per individual currently powerless. 

• But that’s only the start of achieving a generations-old ambition on the continent. 

Beyond numbers: Experts suggest 380 million Africans is the maximum reachable sustainably with off-grid power in the foreseeable future, given population density. 

• Yet to do so, a lot more is needed than money – though that too. 

• Governments, regulators and investors all have to take daring leaps.

Status quo: Africa has perhaps 12,000 mini-grids of which just over 3,000 are solar. Connecting 380 million people requires building and running a total of 160,000 mini-grids.

• Current construction plans don’t show a path to 160,000. 

• The number of announced projects is in the single-digit thousands.

• Kenya has ambitious plans to create 137 mini-grids. Great, but…

The crux: The public sector once monopolised power provision, but failed, conclusively, and now has essentially given up on universal access. 

• Everybody knows the answer is the private sector (which is keen to be involved).

• But governments are struggling to play even the still needed role of regulator.

• Old vested interests are inhibiting private energy provision in much of Africa. 

Tailwinds: At the recent New York Climate Week, African energy talk was fulsome. High-profile leaders see transformative change. 

• Raj Shah, the president of the Rockefeller Foundation and former head of USAID, declared: “The message to African energy entrepreneurs is easy: Now is your moment. You’re about to have the kind of regulatory and policy clarity in major sub-Saharan economies that people have been asking for for two decades.”

Reality check: Many investors and operators are more cautious. Hurdles differ from country to country. 

• Feeding back into grids is made exceedingly hard by local regulations. 

• A lack of standardisation across jurisdictions increases costs unnecessarily.

And yet: There is quite a bit to celebrate, cautiously. 

• The capital cost per kWp for solar panels dropped 26% in the past three years.

• Since 2015, private-sector funding has increased sixfold.

Public nurturing: Some governments have embraced the obvious and improved policies. 

• Nigeria and Egypt provide incentives to encourage adoption. 

• Kenya supports pay-as-you-go models to make solar affordable.

• Sierra Leone and Ethiopia include mini-grids in national electrification plans.

Size matters: Most African mini-grids generate 10 kW to 1 MW. But recently we've seen a trend toward bigger projects. 

• In DR Congo, local startup Nuru is building Africa’s largest mini-grids with combined capacities of 13.7 MW.

Money matters: The financing environment is improving step by step. 

• Innovative models such as a blended finance approach combining grants, debt and equity are mitigating risks and attracting private capital.

• Mini-grid developers like CrossBoundary are offering bundled services, combining electricity with appliance financing to boost productive energy use.

The opportunity: Even the poorest parts of Africa can contribute to global decarbonisation. They don’t emit much in terms of greenhouse gases yet can benefit from reducing them.

• Mini-grids slash emissions in unelectrified villages by up to 71% as well as boost incomes.

• In Hakwata village in Zimbabwe, 248 youths became carpenters in mechanised workshops and are earning an income thanks to a solar mini-grid.

In sum: This is a make-or-break moment for off-grid in Africa. Wait another decade and the opportunity to benefit local prosperity and the planet as a whole may well have moved on.

• The current focus on decarbonisation is key to enthusiasm for African mini-grids. 

• That may not last. Investment climates are as volatile as the weather. 

• Now is the time for mini-grids to prove their worth at scale and benefit the continent.

2. Cheat sheet: The six parts of a mini-grid

(i) Power generation system: This can be renewable (solar, wind, hydro) or nonrenewable (diesel generators).

(ii) Energy storage system: Batteries or other forms of storage for periods of high demand (televised sport) or low supply (night-time).