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The sun shines in unexpected places (transforming the solar sector)
Sunshine is not distributed equally across Africa, and nor is the solar sector.
Green Rising
December 07, 2023
Sunshine is not distributed equally across Africa, and nor is the solar sector.
Status quo: Current African leadership in installed solar capacity is closely related to prosperity (and diminished by domestic oil production).
Economic giants South Africa and Egypt are at the top (1,700 - 6,000 MW).
Followed by development leaders Algeria and Morocco (450 - 850 MW).
Green champions Kenya and Ethiopia come next (250 - 300 MW).
The continent’s top oil producers, Angola and Nigeria, are missing.
Coming shakeup: The top leaders have seen strong growth. South African installations quadrupled in two years, not least due to failure in traditional generation.
Yet accelerating investment in renewables, including but not limited to solar, will shift the locations of growth dramatically.
Large economies will remain large potential solar consumers, but an analysis by Green Rising forecasts shifts in regional growth rates.
New normal: Solar’s unequal distribution in Africa is likely to undergo a fundamental transformation driven by competition from cheaper (and less intermittent) renewables.
Geothermal, hydro-electric and wind generation are more cost-effective than solar.
The need to store day-time sunpower for night-time consumption makes solar costly.
Other factors: With growing investment, the relative attractiveness of solar is impacted by three other factors that have so far been overshadowed.
Europe has discovered Africa as a potential electricity exporter, favouring nations to the continent’s north.
The weaker a country’s power grid, the more attractive solar becomes… since solar can be installed at a small scale – unlike other renewables.
Photovoltaic strength, i.e. sunlight, varies regionally, and with it the cost-effectiveness of solar.
The result: Growth in solar installations will be strongest in places with poor grids, uninterrupted sunlight and ideally the potential to export power.
Everywhere else will be better off using other forms of renewables – if they are available.
Our analysis: We mapped these factors across the continent, including the country-by-country potential of competitor tech to solar (wind, hydro and geothermal).
The data shows the future spread of solar is less influenced by economic prosperity.
At least at grid-level, though household installations will remain closely correlated.
New growth: Solar-specific announcements at COP (see below) already reflect this, likely accelerated by new funding sources, also launched at COP.
The winners: Saharan countries score highly thanks to uninterrupted sunlight and proximity to European export markets.
But current leaders Egypt and Morocco lag as they have fine grids already as well as access to cheaper alternative renewables.
Their more dysfunctional neighbours could see faster growth by contrast.
Falling behind: East Africa is exploiting ever more of its plentiful wind and geothermal potential, and is improving its grids. That makes solar ever less attractive (see map above).
Regional shifts: South Africa is solar king now. But southern promise is strongest in Namibia.
It has an extraordinary photovoltaic score while investing heavily in green hydrogen, with the potential to export power even if it is far from Europe.
Deal examples: The shifting solar landscape shows up in the latest announcements.
On November 17, Nigeria sealed a $2.2 billion solar agreement with Sun Africa, bringing in 961 MWp of solar power and 455 MWh of battery storage.
On the same day, CAR unveiled its second solar power plant, Danzi, a 25 MWp capacity plant with 47,000 solar panels installed by the Chinese company Shanxi Construction Investment Group, financed by a World Bank loan.
Danish developer GreenGo Energy seeks approval for a 60 GW wind-solar hybrid in Mauritania, featuring 35 GW capacity for green hydrogen production.
Sunny potential: The Sahara absorbs sunlight equivalent to 100 times of all human power consumption.
A single Algerian solar panel generates three times more electricity than a German one.
Other drivers: The growth of solar in Africa and elsewhere is due to technical breakthroughs.