🚁 Heli view: Nigeria’s green economy takes off – at last

The ambition is remarkable. The Nigerian government has announced plans to plant 2 billion trees.

• That’s more trees than the rest of the world together plants in a year.

Tonal change: Showing off a focus on climate, Nigeria sent the largest African delegation to COP28 in December. 

• Its 1,411 delegates were only trumped by missions from Brazil and China. 

New boss: The focus on climate is led by President Bola Tinubu, who was elected a year ago.

• He personally announced the launch of Nigeria’s first 100 electric buses. 

Stark contrast: Nigeria had long lagged other green economies in Africa, failing to invest in cleantech. 

• In the Environment Performance Index (EPI), Nigeria ranked 168 out of 180 countries.

• In sub-Saharan Africa, it was 41st out of 46 countries on environment and sustainability.

Energy gap: The failure to build a green economy is especially evident in access to electricity. 

• Kenya used a high rate of renewables (95%) to push grid connections to above 80% of the population.

• But Nigeria still only gets 28% of its power from renewables. And 90 million of its people (45%) lack grid power. 

• The country has the highest number of people worldwide without access to electricity, and the gap widened in the past decade. Population growth beat electrification.

Unexpected blindspot: Failing to see the potential of the green economy in the past decade was odd for Nigeria. Its dynamic business community leads the continent in many other sectors.  

• Nigeria had Africa’s largest economy last year (though only 17th by GDP per capita). 

• It was also the continent’s largest oil producer as well as the most prolific film-maker. 

• Its startup ecosystem has produced more unicorns than the rest of the continent together. 

Catching up: Belatedly now Nigerian business and politics are applying the same determination to succeed in the green economy. 

• President Tinubu is creating frameworks for a $2.5 billion carbon market.

• He also promised a “new dawn” in agriculture, which employs 70% of Nigerians, by making it sustainable.

• Bureaucratic changes include a National Council on Climate Change (predating Tinubu) and a Presidential Power Initiative.

• The country also established public alliances for Responsible Battery Recycling, Food and Beverages Recycling and E-waste Producer Responsibility.

Early fruits: Business has started to embrace the green economy now that foreign money is coming.  

• In collaboration with the Chinese government, over $5.8 billion has been invested in adding 3 Gigawatt (or 25% to current grid capacity). 

• A collaboration between the World Bank, AfDB and the Africa Growing Together Fund is supplying $550 million in new funding.

Head scratching: So why did Nigeria’s green economy take so long to take off? Three reasons: 

• Oil: The dominance of hydrocarbons  – and related private interests – hindered energy diversification.

• Politics: Instability and corruption undermined the transition, deterring investors and delaying regulations. 

• Size: Everything is slower in a country with 230 million people that produces 32 million tonnes of waste annually, making it the world’s seventh biggest polluter.

Changing winds: That the green economy seems to accelerate now is mainly due to politics.

• The government gained new momentum and ambitions after the 2023 election.

• Drastic fuel price increases have made the old energy system increasingly painful.

• Awareness of untapped green opportunities is at last taking hold – from critical minerals, ecotourism and electric mobility to 12 million new jobs in renewable energy. 

Future ambitions: Nigeria is already thinking ahead of its peers on the continent. 

• Ifeoma Malo, CEO of the Clean Tech Hub in Abuja, hopes that Nigeria, using its manpower, can lead in technical assistance in the green economy.

Realism needed: The country still has a long road ahead. But few peers have its track record of winning.